Regional Security Exposure
War in the Gulf is not limited to the states that are directly involved in the conflict. Its impact can spread swiftly and destabilize the GCC countries because of their shared energy networks, air routes, security partnerships, and shared waters, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The proximity to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz directly exposes military bases, ports, airports, oil facilities, and desalination plants to the reach of missiles, drones, cyberattacks, and maritime disruption. Widespread warnings, airspace closures, and uncertainty can discourage the public, postpone investments, and divert government resources both human and material from development toward emergency security measures. Regional conflict also places a serious diplomatic dilemma before the GCC countries: how to defend their countries and alliances without becoming a battleground for larger powers.
Economic and Human Costs
The consequences extend to households, workers, and businesses from a public-policy perspective. The economies of the GCC rely on energy exports, aviation and shipping, tourism, finance, construction, and foreign labor. In the first half of 2025, the Strait of Hormuz transported approximately 20.9 million barrels per day (bpd), representing approximately 20% of global petroleum-liquids consumption. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines that bypass the Strait, but their combined alternative capacity can replace only a portion of normal maritime flows. Therefore, a blockade or extended crisis could lead to sharply higher freight, insurance, and energy costs while severely slowing exports and imports.
While higher oil prices could provide a brief fiscal boost to oil-producing countries, this benefit could be outweighed by reduced exports, infrastructure destruction, and the loss of non-oil economic activity. In April 2026, the World Bank revised its growth forecast downward by 3.1 percentage points and predicted a slowdown in GCC growth from 4.4% in 2025 to 1.3% in 2026. The IMF has also noted that conflict can take its toll on the region through disruptions to energy production, air traffic, logistics, and financial markets. This is especially important because GCC development plans are increasingly based on tourism and logistics, as well as technology and private investment, rather than relying solely on oil.
The human consequences can be equally serious, including canceled flights, loss of employment, food shortages, and higher prices for medicines and imported goods for both citizens and expatriates. Increased government spending on defense, reconstruction, and emergency support can reduce spending on economic diversification, education, healthcare, and housing. Damage to electricity or desalination systems would pose a severe welfare threat, as cities across the Gulf rely heavily on these essential services. War is thus not just a foreign-policy issue; it is also a governance, employment, and human-security issue.
Policy Response
The Gulf experience has shown that military protection is no longer sufficient to guarantee economic stability and public welfare. The need of the hour is a coordinated response from GCC governments in terms of defense preparedness, crisis communication, and economic resilience. Mediators from countries such as Oman and Qatar can help conflicting parties reach agreements, while the GCC can maintain a common voice and prevent individual countries from becoming isolated or exposed to attacks. Support from the United Nations and other international organizations can contribute to ceasefire efforts, verification mechanisms, and humanitarian access. Coordination, integration, and cooperation among GCC member states in economic, financial, transportation, social, and administrative fields are also emphasized in the founding documents of the GCC.
Building Greater Regional Resilience
A more realistic policy solution should involve the joint protection of ports, energy infrastructure, and water infrastructure; coordinated aviation and maritime emergency plans; greater reliance on alternative export routes that reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz; and strategic reserves of food and medicine. Economic diversification should be encouraged, and conflicts should not be allowed to undermine the tourism, logistics, and investment sectors if governments maintain appropriate support policies. Most importantly, GCC countries need to pursue a careful regional policy that avoids provoking escalation while protecting national sovereignty.
The lesson to be learned is that war can start between specific governments, but its impact is felt across the Gulf. Therefore, protecting security, development, and human welfare will be difficult without effective diplomacy, regional coordination, and institutional preparedness.
Ms. Amima Anwar is a PhD Scholar at Superior University, Lahore. She is currently serving as a Lecturer at the University of Narowal. She holds an MPhil in Business Administration from Superior University, Lahore. With twelve years of teaching and administrative experience, she has developed expertise in both academic and administrative roles. Her research publications focus on the fields of marketing and management.
Please note that all opinions, views, statements, and facts conveyed in the article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of Chaudhry Abdul Rehman Business School (CARBS). CARBS assumes no liability or responsibility for any errors or omissions in the content. When interpreting and applying the information provided in the article, readers are advised to use their own discretion and judgement.
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